Stuart_Armstrong comments on Risk-Free Bonds Aren't - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 22 June 2007 10:30PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 25 June 2007 07:30:30AM 0 points [-]

I think you are way overstating things. Did you read earlier comments? Are you aware how close we came to defaulting in the 1990s when Congress and the president gridlocked over a budget?

I know, and I read those. However, all the 20th century defaults I actually know about - Argentina, the mentioned examples of the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empire, many countries after a revolution - were accompanied by civil disorder. Does anyone have recent examples of a peaceful government default? (there are a few examples I've found in the 19th century, though they were generally partial or temporary defaults).

As for the US, I think it's easy to exaggerate, in hindsight, the closeness to a default. I very much doubt that a proper default - a sustained refusal to honour debts - would have come out of that.