Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Risk-Free Bonds Aren't - Less Wrong
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Credit Default Swaps on US Treasury bonds are currently trading at 16 basis points, up from 1.6 basis points when this was written.
As commenters at the above blog observe, "I'm trying to imagine a scenario where a Treasury bond defaults, but a CDS contract promising payments in the event of that default is still worth something" and "So if you went long the underling Treasuries in July, and went short by buying the CDS, you would have made gobs of money being both long and short the same asset. My mind is blown."
There turn out to be a lot of scenarios. You point out one way:
This is exactly the scenario unfolding now with the Republican brinkmanship on the debt ceiling. No new debt = default. From Forbes "What a US Default, Downgrade Might Look Like" (emphasis added):