What kinds of predictions are we the least successful at predicting? (weakest calibration, smallest accuracy)
This doesn't seem like a useful question to answer in isolation. It's easy to come up with extremely hard but also extremely useless prediction questions.
As rationalists, we should be able to consistently and accurately make predictions that enable us to act effectively.
As humans, we don't. At least not perfectly.
We need to improve. Many of us have, or at least believe we have. However, it's a notably hacked improvement. PredictionBook is an excellent source of feedback on how well we're doing, but there's more detailed information that isn't easily available that I think could be incredibly useful. Questions I would like to see answered are: