(If anybody complains that the expectation of some Singularity-like development is ideological: no, it is a reasonable guess based on the current evidence, much like Drake's expectation of every technological civilization's eventual self-destruction was reasonable in his Cold War era.)
The issue isn't whether it is "ideological" but whether it is likely. And how likely matters a lot in this sort of context. The fact that in Drake's main era, self-destruction seemed much more likely should maybe give one pause to wonder if similar levels of confidence in a Singularity should be justified.
It is also worth noting that to get the sort of average you want we need probably more precise data than just that in the Drake equation. Even that equation is only an approximation (among other issues it assumes that all the variables are independent). What you want to do would likely hinge even more on sensitivity to those sorts of issues. (For example, while Drake just needs the likelyhood of a star to have planets, you would need information about the distribution of such stars. Star systems near the galactic core in many ways look different than those near here.)
The fact that in Drake's main era, self-destruction seemed much more likely should maybe give one pause to wonder if similar levels of confidence in a Singularity should be justified.
I agree.
For example, while Drake just needs the likelyhood of a star to have planets, you would need information about the distribution of such stars. Star systems near the galactic core in many ways look different than those near here.
For our purposes, we'd only have to look at the distribution around us, maybe something like all stars less than 1000 light years away that aren't brown dwarfs. We know those pretty well.
I expect everyone here has an opinion on the Drake Equation. (Comment if I'm wrong.) And that's because it is an easy story to remember and spread. Never mind its glaring inadequacy or the symbols it uses: it gives you a number of alien civilizations and somehow that sticks. I'd like to see if a science meme with similar properties could be created to carry a transhumanist payload. So. Could you convince a random person of the following three points if you wanted to?
I think you could. And if you do, and if you can give a number of light-years, regardless of how much you emphasize the low confidence, aliens will suddenly seem more real to that random person. And so will, if not full transhumanism, at least some vague notion that intelligence must grow much like life does. I think that could reach a lot of people.
(If anybody complains that the expectation of some Singularity-like development is ideological: no, it is a reasonable guess based on the current evidence, much like Drake's expectation of every technological civilization's eventual self-destruction was reasonable in his Cold War era.)
The brain I'm typing this from knows too little math or astronomy to do this locally, so I'm throwing out the idea. Anyone care to play with this?