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ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 - Less Wrong
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He has lied directly before, about his role in the Azkaban escape.
A loophole would be noticed by Dumbledore. My money's on him simply lying directly now. (I mean that literally, I have made a bet that depends on it. :-)
Granted, and it's certainly conceivable. I just think it says interesting things if it's true.