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Kaj_Sotala comments on Making Rationality General-Interest - Less Wrong
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We really should have a short phrase for that. Suggestions? "The evidence would be likely given the hypothesis, but the hypothesis isn't as likely given the evidence" would at least be a bit shorter.
I would probably express it as something like "you're confusing a high likelihood with a high posterior," which is less precise but I suspect would be understood by a Bayesian.