DanielLC comments on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT - Less Wrong

-9 Post author: abcd_z 19 July 2013 02:59AM

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Comment author: DanielLC 19 July 2013 03:09:57AM 3 points [-]

Correct, at least as far as the math goes. I prefer to use odds ratios.

Prior odds that she's over me: 3:7

Evidence ratio of her missing my call: 90%:10% = 9:1

Posterior odds that she's over me: 39:71 = 27:7 = 3.86:1

Posterior probability that she's over me: (27/7)/(27/7+1) = (27/7)/(34/7) = (27/34) = 79.4%

Comment author: wedrifid 19 July 2013 03:30:30AM 4 points [-]

Evidence ratio of her missing my call: 90%:10% = 9:1

If I assumed this prior I'd have to conclude that I'm over, like, everyone.

Comment author: abcd_z 19 July 2013 03:41:04AM 1 point [-]

She almost never missed my calls.