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abcd_z comments on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT - Less Wrong
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Comments (23)
Wouldn't that be redundant?
I don't know why it would be redundant. If she has a certain probability of getting over you every day, and you called her and interacted normally Yesterday, then for it to be 30%, would require that she had a 30% chance of getting over you in a day, before you knew anything about whether she answered your call or not.
I don't trust my accuracy of measurement from the time we broke up until now. The relationship between us has been...uncertain, and her ignoring my calls is the first behavioral cue I can point to and say "Okay, that means there's a good chance she's over me."
Oh, I didn't know you broke up.
You explicitly broke up, and your prior for "she's over you" is only 30%?
Also, if she was breaking up, but maybe changing her mind, a 90% chance of answering your call seems too high, but I have no experience with these matters.
Ah. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
Yeah, that particular prior is low at least partly because of my wishful thinking.
Not that it seems to have helped. =/