Oh, I didn't know you broke up.
You explicitly broke up, and your prior for "she's over you" is only 30%?
Also, if she was breaking up, but maybe changing her mind, a 90% chance of answering your call seems too high, but I have no experience with these matters.
Ah. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
Yeah, that particular prior is low at least partly because of my wishful thinking.
Not that it seems to have helped. =/
Solve for: The probability that she's over me given that she didn't answer my call.
Estimated probabilities:
The probability that she'd miss my call given that she was over me: 90%
The probability that she's over me: 30%
The probability that she'd miss my call given she was not over me. 10%
(P(over me|missed call)= P(missed call|over me)*P(over me)) / (P(missed call|over me)*P(over me)+P(Missed call|Not over me)*P(Not over me))
P(O|M)=(P(M|O)*P(O))/(P(M|O)*P(O)+P(M|N)*P(N))
P(O|M)=(.9*.3)/((.9*.3)+(.1*.7))
P(O|M)=(.27)/(.27)+(.07)) = .27/.34 = .794
Probability that she's over me given that she didn't answer the phone: 79.4%
TT_TT
EDIT: Something I've noticed here is that people are pointing to the chosen priors and saying that they seem unrealistic.
In our 3-year relationship, she almost never missed my calls, or if she did she would contact me back as soon as she realized that she missed my call. In the current situation, she did no such thing.
EDIT2: Yes, we broke up. Sorry I didn't make that clear.