The error bars on the result make this result meaningless. You should, at minimum, also consider how hot/successful she is relative to you (can she do better?) and whether she and you have shared goals (what are her dreams/expectations? are they compatible with yours, and are you both making progress?). It would be extraordinarily improbable for her to forget you overnight, but if she broke up with you she has likely wanted to do better for some time. The usual post-breakup advice is to focus on your own goals for awhile.
1) What error bars? Are you talking about the relative uncertainty of the priors? Because it's assumed that these prior are only my best estimate. You're not saying anything new here.
2) "how hot/successful she is relative to you": I haven't heard of any studies that positively correlate physical appearance and financial success with reduced time to get over a long-term relationship. I admit that it's possible that there's a connection, but as of yet I haven't seen any evidence that would persuade me to include it.
3) "if she broke up with...
Solve for: The probability that she's over me given that she didn't answer my call.
Estimated probabilities:
The probability that she'd miss my call given that she was over me: 90%
The probability that she's over me: 30%
The probability that she'd miss my call given she was not over me. 10%
(P(over me|missed call)= P(missed call|over me)*P(over me)) / (P(missed call|over me)*P(over me)+P(Missed call|Not over me)*P(Not over me))
P(O|M)=(P(M|O)*P(O))/(P(M|O)*P(O)+P(M|N)*P(N))
P(O|M)=(.9*.3)/((.9*.3)+(.1*.7))
P(O|M)=(.27)/(.27)+(.07)) = .27/.34 = .794
Probability that she's over me given that she didn't answer the phone: 79.4%
TT_TT
EDIT: Something I've noticed here is that people are pointing to the chosen priors and saying that they seem unrealistic.
In our 3-year relationship, she almost never missed my calls, or if she did she would contact me back as soon as she realized that she missed my call. In the current situation, she did no such thing.
EDIT2: Yes, we broke up. Sorry I didn't make that clear.