Sniffnoy comments on Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) - Less Wrong
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Because one of these allows you to make predictions, and the other doesn't. Saying "fire has a cause, and I'm going to call it 'phlogiston'!" doesn't tell you anything about fire, it's just a relabeling. Now, if you make enough observations, maybe you'll eventually conclude that "phlogiston is the absence of oxygen" (even though this isn't really correct), but at that point you can throw out the label "phlogiston". Contrariwise, if you say "oxidization causes fire", where "oxygen" is a previously known thing with known properties, then this allows you to actually make predictions about fire. E.g. the fact a candle in a sufficiently small closed space will go out before it melts, but not necessarily if there's a plant in there too. One pays rent, the other doesn't.
The hypothesis went a little deeper than that. "Flammable things contain a substance, and its release is fire" lets you make many predictions — e.g., that things will burn in vacuum, or that things burned in open air will always lose mass (this is how it was falsified).
Ah, true.