HonoreDB comments on Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) - Less Wrong

110 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 July 2007 10:59PM

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Comment author: jimrandomh 26 February 2011 08:25:59PM *  2 points [-]

You're missing the fact that how much Joe values the surgery depends on whether or not he expects to be told whether it worked afterward. If Joe expects to have the surgery but to never find out whether or not it worked, then its value is U(0.5)-U(0)=0.25. On the other hand, if he expects to be told whether it worked or not, then he ends up with a belief-score or either 0 or 1, not 0.5, so its value is (0.5*U(1.0) + 0.5*U(0)) - U(0) = 0.5.

Suppose Joe is uncertain whether he's attractive or not - he assigns it a probability of 1/3. Someone offers to tell him the true answer. If Joe's utility-of-belief function is U(p)=p^2, then being told the answer is worth ((1/3)*U(1) + (2/3)*U(0)) - U(1/3) = ((1/3)*1 + (2/3)*0) - (1/9) = 2/9, so he takes the offer. If on the other hand his utility-of-belief function were U(p)=sqrt(p), then being told the information would be worth ((1/3)*sqrt(1) + (2/3)*sqrt(0)) - sqrt(1/3) = -0.244, so he plugs his ears.

Comment author: HonoreDB 26 February 2011 09:33:57PM 1 point [-]

You're missing the fact that how much Joe values the surgery depends on whether or not he expects to be told whether it worked afterward.

Good point.

If on the other hand his utility-of-belief function were U(p)=sqrt(p), then being told the information would be worth ((1/3)sqrt(1) + (2/3)sqrt(0)) - sqrt(1/3) = -0.244, so he plugs his ears.

I agree here.

But I still suspect that if your U(p) is anything other than linear on p, you can get Dutch-booked. I'll try to come back with a proof, or at least an argument.