jimrandomh comments on Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) - Less Wrong
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Thanks for taking the time to try puzzling this out, but I suspect it's just interestingly wrong. The magic seems to be happening in this paragraph:
I don't see where U(1/2+p/2) comes from; should that be U(1)+U(p)? I'm also not sure it's possible for the agent to anticipate choosing option 2, given the information it has. Finally, what does it matter whether a change increases expected utility under the new function? It's only utility under the old function that matters - changing utility function to almost anything maximizes the new function, including degenerate utility functions like number of paperclips.
Joe doesn't know yet which proposition would get 1 and which would get p, so he assigns the average to both. He anticipates learning which is which, at which point it would change to 1 and p.
Not sure what you mean here.
It just shows the asymmetry. Joe can maximize U by changing into Joe-with-U', but Joe-with-U' can't maximize U' by changing back to U.