gjm comments on Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences) - Less Wrong
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If you have an arbitrary proposition -- a random sequence of symbols constrained only by the grammar of whatever language you're using -- then perhaps it's about equally likely to be true or false, since for each proposition p there's a corresponding proposition not p of similar complexity.
But the "beliefs" people are mostly interested in are things like these:
and the negations of these are much less interesting because they say so much less:
So: yeah, sure, there are ways to pick a "random" belief and be pretty sure it's correct (just say "it isn't the case that" followed by something very specific) but if what you're picking are things like scientific theories or religious doctrines or political parties then I think it's reasonable to say that the great majority of possible beliefs are wrong, because the only beliefs we're actually interested in are the quite specific ones.