Yeah, I see everyone with charity. I rarely run into truly stupid people. Most of them have stupid beliefs and stupid habits but they are intelligent enough to still be alive. These people are smart enough to understand the concepts at LessWrong. At least, smart enough to understand everything I have read so far. Maybe not the mathy particulars, but the high level concepts, sure.

The astrologer in your example is not stupid. He dodges because he already knows it will fail because he has seen it fail. I suspect he latches onto his belief for other reasons. I really don't see how he could be following astrology and not see it fail from time to time. The appropriate question isn't in the form of an experiment because you don't know what the believer expects.

I get that this is belief in belief. What I don't get is how this matches the dragon example. He isn't dodging an experiment that he hasn't seen yet. He sees it all the time. Trying to verify the accuracy of astrology is something these people do every day. You can watch in the same video as people ponder if a saying applies to them. Half of them reject it without feeling like their whole system crashed.

I am not defending astrology. I am not defending the beliefs in it. I am confused as to how this looks like the dragon example.

The closest dragon-esque example I have seen posted here was this:

Later I asked him about the efficacy of prayer and he said it worked as long as you weren't doing a test to see if it worked.

I am starting to think I am misunderstanding the example.