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SarahC comments on Belief in Belief - Less Wrong
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If I may extend your hypothetical frightened father metaphor: the man is worried that he is biologically designed to be an irresponsible father, but he is mistaken to worry that he will find out that he is biologically designed to be irresponsible. What he wants is to be responsible, not to think that he is responsible, so the mere fact of whether or not he knows some specific fact is not going to affect that.
Whatever the truth is, the hypothetical frightened father - and the very real frightened theists, such as yourself - already are living under whatever conditions actually hold. If the father is a responsible one, he already wins, whatever his biological predisposition was. If a theist is a good person, that theist already is a good person, whether God is real or not.
That is the first of two essential points. The second is this: if you would rather be good than not, then you are already on the right path, even if you can't see where you are going. Others have walked this way before, and escaped into clear air.
Well, my issue is that people act based on their beliefs. A father will do things for his children because he thinks he can, and thinks he should. If he reads an article in Psychology Today and doesn't see the point any more, because baboon fathers don't raise children, well, then, his behavior is likely to change.
The worst case scenario is believing incorrectly that it's okay to do wrong. Believing incorrectly that it's wrong to do something okay is not as bad; you're mistaken, but you're not destructive. The loss-averse strategy is to be very suspicious of claims that tell you "Relax, don't worry, it's all right to do X."
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The solution to this dilemma is to learn more. It really isn't so bad on the other side if you just keep walking and don't look down.
I wouldn't be here if I weren't seriously open to changing my mind. I'll give it some thought.