ata comments on Belief in Belief - Less Wrong

66 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 July 2007 05:49PM

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Comment author: ata 18 January 2011 04:14:16AM 7 points [-]

Belief in disbelief:

One of our neighbors in Tisvilde once fixed a horseshoe over the door to his house. When a mutual acquaintance asked him, 'But are you really superstitious? Do you honestly believe that this horseshoe will bring you luck?' he replied, 'Of course not; but they say it helps even if you don't believe it.'

— Niels Bohr

(Note: This is often retold with Bohr himself as the one with the horseshoe, but this quote appears to be the authentic one.)

I wonder how common that is, believing that you don't believe something but acting in a way that implies more belief in it than you acknowledge. One other example I experienced recently: For whatever reason, my mom had a homeopathic cold remedy lying around. (I think a friend gave it to her.) She and I both had colds recently, so she suggested I try some of it. The thing is, she gives full assent to my explanations of why homeopathy is both experimentally falsified and physical nonsense; she even appeared to believe me when I looked at the ingredients and dilution factors and determined that the bottle essentially contained water, sugar, and purple food colouring. But even after that, she still said we may as well try it because it couldn't hurt. True, it couldn't hurt... but "it can't hurt" doesn't sound like really understanding that the bottle you're holding consists of water, sugar, and purple.

Another instance may be former theists who still act in some ways as though they believe in God (an interesting mirror image of current theists who don't act as though they really believe what they profess to believe), though in my experience many of them consider it to be bad habit they're trying to break, so I'd be less inclined to call it belief in [dis]belief, I'd take that as something more akin to akrasia.

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 09:25:25AM 2 points [-]

The placebo effect is weakened but doesn't disappear if you know it's a placebo.

Comment author: Morendil 22 June 2011 03:39:11PM 1 point [-]

Citation needed :)

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 03:46:59PM *  2 points [-]

Here's a study (honestly labeled placebo vs nothing) for irritable bowel syndrome.

I originally got it from a Science et Vie article on a study with four conditions (labeled as placebo vs as treatment; placebo vs treatment), can't remember what for.

Comment author: Morendil 22 June 2011 04:12:26PM 1 point [-]

I remember this from earlier, see my response in that thread, and my links to Silberman and Lipson.

The study may well be measuring patients' tendency to want to fulfill doctors' expectations rather than any effect on the actual symptoms.

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 04:20:04PM 1 point [-]

I agree this study is a bit silly. I'll try to dig up the one I saw, but promise nothing.

Agree that the placebo effect may contain lying to doctors. There may also be some regression to the mean - people who are too healthy are excluded from the study, so when everyone moves at random the ones sick enough to be selected get healthier.

Comment author: Nornagest 22 June 2011 05:40:46PM *  1 point [-]

My understanding is that the studies establishing a placebo effect were controlled in a way that'd rule out regression to the mean as a cause of the perceived improvements. Lying to doctors does sound plausible, though.

Comment author: Morendil 22 June 2011 03:43:27PM 0 points [-]

What's weird about this is that if this theory works, anything forms an acceptable substitute.

So you don't need to buy any actual homeopathic "medication", you can save lots of money by just eating some sugar. (The homeopathic markup on sugar is just unbelievable.)

Even sugar isn't necessary, since you're stipulating that "what works" isn't any particular mechanism of action but just the action of treating yourself. You could as well choose to believe that taking a deep breath three times in succession is a good remedy against the cold (or whatever else ails you).

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 03:59:42PM 0 points [-]

Tends to work pretty well on my own mental state, but very short term. Complicated (expensive?) impressive rituals help, though.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 22 June 2011 08:36:16PM 1 point [-]

When I feel the first signs suggesting an incipient cold, I decide THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, and it nearly always goes away.

So far, I've only been able to make this work for colds, not any other malady.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 22 June 2011 09:16:28PM 1 point [-]

Must remember to try this.

Which incipient signs do you look for?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 22 June 2011 10:45:33PM 1 point [-]

A roughness in the throat is usually the first thing I notice. Unchecked, it develops into a cough, sore throat, sneezing, and at the peak a couple of days of being completely unable to function.

This happened about once a year on average before I discovered I could banish them by willpower, since when it's been more like once in five years, generally from extreme circumstances like being caught in the rain on a bike ride without adequate clothing.

Comment author: Feklatnim 03 February 2013 06:17:03PM 0 points [-]

Just to chuck in a little more anecdotal evidence, my husband applied this belief in the placebo effect, and so long as he can get an early night, he never suffers the little bugs and headaches.

It works in all instances where homeopathy has worked... ;)

The placebo effect rocks!

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 22 June 2011 04:16:40PM 2 points [-]

I once took cough drops that really helped with the sore throat from a cold I had, and actually tasted good too. It was only after a day or two that I looked at the packaging and realized they were homeopathic. I didn't think too hard about it and kept taking them, because I wanted the placebo benefits and all the other brands of cough drop I own taste terrible.