MixedNuts comments on Belief in Belief - Less Wrong

66 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 July 2007 05:49PM

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Comment author: ata 18 January 2011 04:14:16AM 7 points [-]

Belief in disbelief:

One of our neighbors in Tisvilde once fixed a horseshoe over the door to his house. When a mutual acquaintance asked him, 'But are you really superstitious? Do you honestly believe that this horseshoe will bring you luck?' he replied, 'Of course not; but they say it helps even if you don't believe it.'

— Niels Bohr

(Note: This is often retold with Bohr himself as the one with the horseshoe, but this quote appears to be the authentic one.)

I wonder how common that is, believing that you don't believe something but acting in a way that implies more belief in it than you acknowledge. One other example I experienced recently: For whatever reason, my mom had a homeopathic cold remedy lying around. (I think a friend gave it to her.) She and I both had colds recently, so she suggested I try some of it. The thing is, she gives full assent to my explanations of why homeopathy is both experimentally falsified and physical nonsense; she even appeared to believe me when I looked at the ingredients and dilution factors and determined that the bottle essentially contained water, sugar, and purple food colouring. But even after that, she still said we may as well try it because it couldn't hurt. True, it couldn't hurt... but "it can't hurt" doesn't sound like really understanding that the bottle you're holding consists of water, sugar, and purple.

Another instance may be former theists who still act in some ways as though they believe in God (an interesting mirror image of current theists who don't act as though they really believe what they profess to believe), though in my experience many of them consider it to be bad habit they're trying to break, so I'd be less inclined to call it belief in [dis]belief, I'd take that as something more akin to akrasia.

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 09:25:25AM 2 points [-]

The placebo effect is weakened but doesn't disappear if you know it's a placebo.

Comment author: Morendil 22 June 2011 03:39:11PM 1 point [-]

Citation needed :)

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 03:46:59PM *  2 points [-]

Here's a study (honestly labeled placebo vs nothing) for irritable bowel syndrome.

I originally got it from a Science et Vie article on a study with four conditions (labeled as placebo vs as treatment; placebo vs treatment), can't remember what for.

Comment author: Morendil 22 June 2011 04:12:26PM 1 point [-]

I remember this from earlier, see my response in that thread, and my links to Silberman and Lipson.

The study may well be measuring patients' tendency to want to fulfill doctors' expectations rather than any effect on the actual symptoms.

Comment author: MixedNuts 22 June 2011 04:20:04PM 1 point [-]

I agree this study is a bit silly. I'll try to dig up the one I saw, but promise nothing.

Agree that the placebo effect may contain lying to doctors. There may also be some regression to the mean - people who are too healthy are excluded from the study, so when everyone moves at random the ones sick enough to be selected get healthier.

Comment author: Nornagest 22 June 2011 05:40:46PM *  1 point [-]

My understanding is that the studies establishing a placebo effect were controlled in a way that'd rule out regression to the mean as a cause of the perceived improvements. Lying to doctors does sound plausible, though.