= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
tunesmith comments on Belief in Belief - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (164)
The idea here is that if you really believed you had an invisible dragon in your garage, if somebody proposes a new test (like measuring CO2), your reaction should be "Oh, hey! There's a chance my dragon breathes air, and if so, this would actually show it's there! Of course, if not, I'll need to see it as less likely there's an invisible dragon."
If instead, your instant reaction is always to expect that the CO2 test returns nothing, and to spend your first thoughts (even before the test!) coming up with an excuse why this doesn't disconfirm the dragon... then the part of you that's actually predicting experiences knows there isn't actually a dragon, since it instantly knows that any new test for it will come up null.
Do people actually do that? I couldn't think of anyone I know who would do that. I finally came up with an example of someone I know who has a belief in belief, but it still doesn't translate into someone who acts like you described.
I am not saying it is impossible; I've just never met anyone who acted like this and wasn't blatantly lying (which I am assuming disqualifies them from belief in belief).
Just as a completely non-religious example, my girlfriend is a medical social worker and has been working recently with a patient that is absolutely convinced he has cancer.
There has apparently been some cases of tests that came back clean, and his excuses after the fact, but it's also turned in to him anticipating future tests not finding the cancer, yet with him still certain he has cancer. I had originally suggested that she ask him ahead of time something like, "well if we do this test and it comes back clean, will you let it go?" but he wasn't even open to the question.
Like what? Just curious.
I asked... he apparently doesn't say much. She's theorizing Münchausen syndrome, which means he's not necessarily conscious that he's feigning illness.