Kaj_Sotala comments on Useful Questions Repository - Less Wrong

23 Post author: Qiaochu_Yuan 25 July 2013 02:58AM

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Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 26 July 2013 06:17:08AM 11 points [-]

When prolonging a decision until you know more:

Would having this information actually influence my choice, or is it just an excuse to put off a painful decision?

Comment author: evand 28 July 2013 02:58:14PM 5 points [-]

I think something like this is more useful:

For each [reasonably likely] value that this information could take on, what would my choice be?

Ideally the two formulations result in the same answer, but I'd rather make it more explicit. It's easier to raionalize "yes, this would be influential" if you haven't actually produced the decision tree.

Comment author: Tem42 12 August 2015 02:18:13PM 0 points [-]

evand's formulation is also useful because in many situations when you identify the alternative outcomes, you may also see:

  • Later steps that will apply to either outcome that can be done or prepared for now.

  • Low cost things that you can do that will prepare you for alternative outcomes -- including in many cases a Google search, when you realize that you are lacking information about the less desired outcome.

  • Third options that you had not considered.