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Rukifellth comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 - Less Wrong
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In Escalation of Conflicts
In Multiple Hypothesis Testing
James must have known that it wouldn't be very long before Voldemort found Lily and Harry even with the Cloak, given Voldemort's legendary powers. Trying to hold him off despite this was still a better idea, as it would at least give Lily and Harry the chance to flee rather than hide.
Agreed, but wouldn't a true cloak of invisibility still be a good thing to have while fleeing? Hiding in a corner of your house would be stupid, since everybody knows that's where you live, but if the Death Eaters aren't quite sure what city you're in, it would be good to be able to walk into the supermarket without anybody recognizing you.
I don't understand, we're talking about the instant Voldemort breaks into their house, right?
On a related note: Why didn't the Death Eaters just blow up the Potter house? Sure, they wouldn't be able to find their actual bodies, but it seems like blowing up the most likely place your prey are hiding is a smart move.
Similarly, why did Voldemort go to Godric's Hollow all by himself? He KNEW the prophesy, so he should have been a bit cautious. Plus, considering the source of his info on the Potters, he should have been a little suspicious about walking into a trap. If he had gone with henchmen, the henchmen could have killed Harry/blown up the house after Voldemort disappeared, thus allowing the Death Eaters to cover up Voldemort's disappearance and at least try to figure things out for 5 minutes before surrendering completely.
Because they would just be setting themselves up for the No-one Could Possibly Have Survived That trope.
It may be that Voldemort didn't have the manpower to take out the Potters, the Death Eaters tied up elsewhere.
In Coordination Problems, Part 2
In order for fifty Death Eaters to wreak the havoc that magical Britain is recovering from, they would literally need to be working round-the-clock, the Dark Mark being an example of the extreme discipline and obedience needed to be one. Voldemort may have wanted the Potters taken out ASAP, but he'd already sent everyone out on assignments. Snape wasn't going to do it, and based on what we hear about the Potters, he and Bellatrix were probably the only Death Eaters capable of actually taking them out.
... can you do that if it's under a Fidelius?
Note that the Grimmauld Place mansion took up no space in the neighborhood outside when Harry went there. I'd also imagine (purely because Fidelius is supposed to be a slam-dunk in terms of defense/secrecy) that, for example, if you tossed a baseball from one house to the other "across" a Fidelius'd house, the baseball would not vanish at the boundary as it falls into the hidden lawn. So presumably there's a spatial effect going on that would exclude such things from working.
Something curious happened in canon, where the Death Eaters knew enough about #12Grimwald Place to set up a vigil around it, but they couldn't enter until one of the keepers actually showed them in, so Harry et al had to stand at the very edge of the wards and apparate everywhere. What's curious about this is that it means Snape told them enough (or maybe it was Creacher? Hm.) to narrow down its location, but not enough to get in, and this never set off "Snape is hiding something" alarms among the Death Eaters. Which tells me that the naive interpretation where the secret dies with the original keeper was the common interpretation, but the Order of the Phoenix knew that it was much less secure than that and everyone who knew the secret became co-keepers on the original's death. This also begs the question of what happens when all the keepers die (what happened with Godrick's Hollow? The magical Graffiti implies that the Fidelius was broken altogether, not just by Voldemort).
So, according to canon, it's still possible to lay siege to a place under the Fidelius, and the Death Eaters eventually broke in because Yacksly was grabbing Hermione when the trio made a return trip (How would that work with a small animagus, I wonder? Tracing wards probably wouldn't work--the trace on underaged magic apparently wasn't enough to get anyone in to any of the locations under Fidelius in Canon).
I think it was actually the constant use of the name Voldemort by Harry and Hermione, as they had not yet heard of the Taboo, that told the Death Eaters there was something worth investigating in the area.
Prediction: we shall see Fidelius Charm 2.0.
I was under the impression that it just appeared to take up no space. It was there, just your brain couldn't actually take notice of that. People do keep describing it in terms of it being impossible to locate, not that it spawned a pocket dimension or anything.
Using your example, the baseball wouldn't vanish at the boundary, you just wouldn't notice that it was passing a house, and couldn't be able to explain why you can't throw it as far in this spot.
The problem is, there's an easy way to break that. If you toss a ball so that it lands in the yard, it's in a place you can't access: from your point of view the ball has vanished. Then you can break the Fidelius for certain purposes by figuring out the general neighborhood and then tossing conjured balls everywhere, then picking up all the ones you can find (magically) and counting them. If you're missing a ball, it's because you can't find it, so there's a Fidelius or equivalent nearby. Repeat on smaller scales until you've narrowed it down to a particular house, then Fiendfyre.
Oh, absolutely, that is a way to break it. It requires a certain level of logic that most of the wizarding world lacks, but sure.
Did anywhere state that it was perfect?
Or, more on point, do we know if people even remember the general location of the neighborhood? I didn't think that they could. If they don't remember the general location, how would they narrow it down?
The thing is, even though Voldemort/Harry level competence is absurdly rare, Moody level competence is significantly more common.
And yes, the Fidelius is supposed to be the highest-end absolutely-perfect conceptual defense against being found.
As far as finding the general location... it's nontrivial, but it's a whole lot easier. Tail known Order members and track where they go; if you see a vague density start tossing balls around. Or, if you're clever/powerful, come up with a city-wide version and then go in order of population.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. Yes, it's referred to as the best they have. But who says it's actually perfect?
If anyone actually said it, they're wrong. If it was perfect, then Lily or James could have been Secret Keeper. Or even Frank/Alice for the Potters and Lily/James for the Longbottoms.
Moody said that the werewolf that he trusts slightly more than usual figured that most Aurors died 8.5 times before 'lucky' became 'prepared.' Assuming he wasn't lying. That doesn't indicate a higher level of competency that many people achieve. Though once you start looking at particulars, it gets difficult to distinguish higher competence in general from higher skill in a particular area.
Tail them. While they can--at least--Apparate. That may prove rather difficult, esp if they are doing so directly into the protected area. That's even assuming they were getting visitors...
And now I can't get the image of a ball-chucking Voldemort getting AKed in the back by the hidden Potters out of my head.