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TheOtherDave comments on Bayesian Judo - Less Wrong
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An adversarial approach may impress spectators. In Eliezer's example, it impressed at least one. But I think it's more likely to alienate the person you're actually conversing with.
I don't have objective research on this. I'm working from personal experience and social work training. In social work you assume people are pretty irrational and coax them round to seeing what you think are better approaches in a way that doesn't embarrass them.
In social work we'd call it "collaborative empricism" or Socratic questioning. Here's video example of a therapist not shouting "Of course you're not being punished by God!" It's more touchy-feely than an argument, but the elements (taking the outside view, encouraging him to lay out the evidence on the situation) are there.
Shortly after my stroke, my mom (who was in many ways more traumatized by it than I was) mentioned that she was trying to figure out what it was that she'd done wrong such that God had punished her by my having a stroke. As you might imagine, I contemplated a number of different competing responses to this, but what I finally said was (something along the lines of) "Look, I understand why you want to build a narrative out of this that involves some responsible agent making decisions that are influenced by your choices, and I recognize that we're all in a difficult emotional place right now and you do what you have to do, but let me offer you an alternative narrative: maybe I had a survivable stroke at 40 so I'd start controlling my blood pressure so I didn't have a fatal one at 45. Isn't that a better story to tell yourself?"
I was pretty proud of that interaction.
Nice work!
That's the same idea as narrative therapy: drawing a new storyline with the same data points.