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lukeprog comments on Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too) - Less Wrong
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Yeah, #3 is my own biggest question for the OP. If you care about the far future, then it seems like the case for MIRI+FHI's positive effect on the far future has been made more robustly than the case for AMF's effect on the far future has been made, even though it's still true that in general we are pretty ignorant about how to affect the far future in positive ways.