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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too) - Less Wrong
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Question: Suppose MIRI was like one of the 8 charities listed above (i.e. intuitively plausible, but empirically useless). How would we know? How would this MIRI' be different from MIRI today?
I correctly distinguished among all 8 charities when I tested myself, so I'd know. :)
That still isn't an answer as to how MIRI' would differ from MIRI.
RobbBB has answered that well. I was remarking against epistemic defeatism.