Randaly comments on Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too) - Less Wrong

31 Post author: peter_hurford 29 July 2013 09:09AM

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Comment author: Randaly 07 August 2013 07:32:55PM *  1 point [-]

No. I'm pretty confident the chance of MIRI failing due to cobalt bombs is <<1%, given that none exist, there are no known plans to build any, and it would still need to be used to halt progress. Also, the use of enough cobalt bombs to destroy MIRI's relevance (remember, MIRI has supports in many different nations, who would presumably a) remain concerned and b) attempt to carry on research if there aren't pressing concerns) presupposes a global nuclear exchange, which would make MIRI irrelevant either way.

(Irrelevant in the sense that all of MIRI's research and writings would be lost, and there wouldn't be enough tech left for people to remember MIRI's research program by the time they would be able to restart research again. I am not claiming that a global nuclear exchange would be an existential risk.)

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 08:00:57PM 0 points [-]

That isn't what you said though. You were talking about the discovery, the very existence of a weapon able to reliably kill everyone. You'd need a lot fewer cobalt bombs to salt the earth with lethal amounts of fallout than you'd need to melt everything to slag, too.

Comment author: Randaly 07 August 2013 08:54:01PM *  2 points [-]

(I am not RobbBB.)

1: The methods for constructing a nuclear bomb are by no means "widely known and easy to follow." Witness the often unsuccessful struggles of many nations for decades to acquire them. Cobalt bombs are even more advanced and difficult to construct than 'regular' nuclear weapons.

The scenario RobBB was presumably envisioning was one in which private individuals have gained the ability to essentially destroy society using, e.g. a super-pandemic or something. A sufficient number of people have always been able to destroy human society; no new technology would be needed for everybody in the world to simultaneously commit suicide, or, for that matter, for a massive nuclear exchange. Spontaneous collective suicide is not likely. However, actions by a small group of individuals (c.f. al-Qaeda) are far more likely. Such groups do not at present have the ability to end human society as we know it; RobBB is envisioning a scenario where they gain it.

2: In the above comment, I wasn't talking about existential risks [*]; I am not claiming that a nuclear war would be an existential risk. For any conventional nuclear war of significant size, SF/Berkley would almost certainly be targeted, killing everybody at MIRI. While I am unsure where the physical location of the servers storing their website/other data is, it's overwhelmingly likely that EMP from nuclear detonations would destroy the ability of anybody to access that data. Given the geographic distribution of LWers, it is likely that only a small-ish number would survive a massive nuclear exchange. Presumably at least a few of these individuals would attempt to carry on research and to recopy MIRI's research/ideas for future generations, assuming that humanity will eventually recover. However, it is extremely unlikely that they will get very far, and very likely that whatever they do write down will be lost or ignored.

[*] Rereading the comment, I actually was talking about existential risks. I have edited it for clarity; I was not intending to, but adopted RobBB's phrasing of something killing us all, while I regard nuclear risks as more likely to render MIRI useless by collapsing society. My bad.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 09:23:37PM 2 points [-]

Sorry about that. I got confused. s/you/RobBB/. I understand better now. I still believe that of the five, 3 is probably the most likely. I also 2-believe that I might overestimate that probability. (Sorry if I sound a bit strange. I'm starting to study lojban.)