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Bayeslisk comments on Why I'm Skeptical About Unproven Causes (And You Should Be Too) - Less Wrong
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Sorry about that. I got confused. s/you/RobBB/. I understand better now. I still believe that of the five, 3 is probably the most likely. I also 2-believe that I might overestimate that probability. (Sorry if I sound a bit strange. I'm starting to study lojban.)