Hmm, okay, to put it another way -- if we avoid running ancestor simulations for the purpose of maximizing the probability that we are not in a simulation, is it valid to, based on this fact, increase our credence in not being in a simulation?
I think so. If we decided not to run a simulation, any would-be-simulators analogous to us would also choose not to run a simulation, so you've eliminated a bunch of worlds where simulations are possible.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Of course, for "every Monday", the last one should have been dated July 22-28. *cough*