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wedrifid comments on Rationality Quotes August 2013 - Less Wrong
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(Unless I don't understand what you are saying) I reject whatever definition 'deceit' is given such that the above claim is true. Behaving in a socially confident manner is different in nature to lying.
I was using "confidence" in a more specific sense, as in "overconfidence", that is implying that you know what you are doing, in the case where you actually don't. "Socially confident manner" might in contrast (for example, among many other things) involve willingness to state your state of uncertainty, as opposed to hiding it (including behind overconfidence).
This seems reasonable. Misleading about probabilities is deceptive. To be fair on Robert Downey, it doesn't seem likely that that is the the usage he was making in the quote.
Jehovah's Witnesses (or insert your cult of choice) who secretly don't believe in what they're selling, army recruiters who have secretly come to know and reject the horrors of war, insurance salesmen who sell useless policies:
All these (and many others) can be deceitful even without telling you their respective lies explicitly, just by using their social capital / community standing / aura of authority to signal their allegiance to their tribe, lending it credence in a deceitful (dishonest because not in tune with their well-calibrated assessment) manner. The similarity to lying comes from social cues (such as exuding confidence in one's role) and 'explicit' lies being forms of communication both.
It is possible to deceive others while using social confidence signals. Such signals are instrumentally useful for even vital for this and many other purposes. But this is not the same thing as the confidence being deceitful.