TheOtherDave comments on Religion's Claim to be Non-Disprovable - Less Wrong

124 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 August 2007 03:21AM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 10 April 2012 03:45:13PM 0 points [-]

Say I'm in a situation that sucks.
Say further I have an N1% chance of improving it by some marginal amount A1 by changing my environment, if I try. It will still suck, but it will suck less. And I have a (1-N1)% chance of failing to improve it, even if I try.
Say further I similarly have an N2% chance of improving it by A2 by altering my own thinking (for example, deluding myself).

If you believed (N2A2) < (N1A1), would you encourage me to (e.g.) delude myself, or to change my environment? Or would this depend on something else? (What?)