anon2 comments on The Importance of Saying "Oops" - Less Wrong

55 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 August 2007 03:17AM

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Comment author: anon2 06 August 2007 03:11:17PM 2 points [-]

Why don't you have to take into account the prior probability of the large mistake that occurred? Of course, you might be biased and believe it to be smaller than it truly is, in which case there should be a whoops moment (your mistake was overconfidence), but clearly there must also be cases in which there was a small prior probability of a big mistake. Shouldn't we not judge these cases by only examining the outcome?