Rixie comments on Focus Your Uncertainty - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 August 2007 08:49PM

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Comment author: omeganaut 09 May 2011 12:32:24AM 1 point [-]

First of all, there is a specific time in which you could evenly divide the period because there are only 60 seconds in a minute, which is divisible by three. Secondly, your article seems to say that we should use our anticipation wisely, which would seem to say that anticipating small things is pointless. However, anticipation is a very important part of human life experiences, and as such it is almost impossible to either use less of or create more of unless one is capable of fooling one's self into an erroneous belief. Last, by anticipating an outcome using rational thought to be able to equally anticipate all outcomes reduces the amount of emotional affect on anticipation, when emotion is a very important part of our motivation. Without having a favorite, you no longer care about the issue, and unless you are a practiced pundit, you will be unable to actually seem authentic on air without having your anticipation emotionally charged and correct.
If you see an error in my argument, please point it out, for this is my first post on these forums, and I'm still not used to thinking in your rational mindset.

Comment author: Rixie 25 January 2013 02:19:19AM 1 point [-]

It's about how if you slide the probability of, say, bond yeilds going up, to be more likely, that makes the probablity of bonds yeilds going down or staying the same less likely. We can't say, "I think that there is a 40% chance of bond yeilds going up, and a 70% chance of bond yeilds going down or staying the same."