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Acidmind comments on Focus Your Uncertainty - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 August 2007 08:49PM

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Comment author: Acidmind 18 March 2013 06:33:18PM 0 points [-]

And, as always, I vastly enjoy this first person perspective that makes the necessity of rationality so blatantly obvious. However, does a 80 percent certainty in "bonds go up" mean a 20 percent certainty in "bonds go down or stay the same"? Can there not be a pool of still undecided minutes left at the bottom of the anticipation barrel? I not, this mode of thinking clearly highlights one thing: If you are 95 percent certain that you turned of your oven, you are also 5 percent certain that you did not, which means that if you are bound for a vacation, 95 percent certainty in a turned off oven should probably be enough for you to check it again.

Comment author: Davidmanheim 24 March 2015 06:31:34AM 1 point [-]

There was a small reference to Dempster Schafer probability, ("DS") that is intended to address exactly this question. As Eliezer noted, you still need to divide your 100 minutes.

For even more complex, difficult formulations to accomplish this, Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) has you covered.