Alexander, probably you could select for intelligence, using the data from the Rietveld et al study. But if you made 10 embryos and picked the one with the highest predicted IQ the increase in average offspring IQ would be under (at most, if one assumed the Rietveld results were fully solid) 3 points. And since the process has not yet been routinized, you would have to undertake serious legwork, bringing together techniques from different labs. And note that the Rietveld results are only a few months old.
But bigger genetic studies should multiply the impact of embryo selection by at least several fold over the decade.
But bigger genetic studies should multiply the impact of embryo selection by at least several fold over the decade.
Now I'm wondering what a full cost-benefit analysis of embryo selection looks like. We know the benefit of each marginal IQ point is something like a few thousand dollars in lifetime income, we also know roughly how much variation can be explained by SNPs and how many relevant SNPs there are, which means we can calculate how many SNPs we'd expect for a given sample size of genotyping, and the genotyping sample size growth over time should b...
The article by Robert Sparrow:
Quote:
The possibility was discussed in MIRI's "Uncertain Future" toy forecasting model back in 2009, and the analysis formulated a few years before that.
ETA: And further discussed in James Miller's recent book, "Singularity Rising."