But bigger genetic studies should multiply the impact of embryo selection by at least several fold over the decade.
Now I'm wondering what a full cost-benefit analysis of embryo selection looks like. We know the benefit of each marginal IQ point is something like a few thousand dollars in lifetime income, we also know roughly how much variation can be explained by SNPs and how many relevant SNPs there are, which means we can calculate how many SNPs we'd expect for a given sample size of genotyping, and the genotyping sample size growth over time should be fairly predictable, so you can estimate an IQ boost vs time curve and then set off the gain from each marginal IQ point against the estimates of your sperm/egg deteriorating over time or storage or opportunity costs... Sounds like a thorny yet doable analysis.
We know the benefit of each marginal IQ point is something like a few thousand dollars in lifetime income
~1% income boost per point. See this report for an almost identical analysis of the benefits of programs to prevent low birth weight. With very low discount rates/return on other investments they estimate a value of between ~$3k-14k for each 1% increase in earnings. By that metric (and metrics used for preschool interventions) it should be cost-effective in a few years but is not so now (particularly in the absence of any clinic offering an organized...
The article by Robert Sparrow:
Quote:
The possibility was discussed in MIRI's "Uncertain Future" toy forecasting model back in 2009, and the analysis formulated a few years before that.
ETA: And further discussed in James Miller's recent book, "Singularity Rising."