Document comments on Common sense as a prior - Less Wrong
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What different evidence would you expect to observe in a world where amateur attempts to set up systems of government were usually botched?
(Edit: reworded for (hopefully) clarity.)
I have an overall sense that there are a lot of governments that are pretty good and that people are getting better at setting up governments over time. The question is very vague and hard to answer, so I am not going to attempt a detailed one. Perhaps you could give it a shot if you're interested.