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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on What Bayesianism taught me - Less Wrong
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Yes, who knows how many other 'obvious' statements you might believe otherwise, such as "Falsification is a different type of process from confirmation."
Falsifying X is obviously the same as confirming not-X ... but confirming that the culprit was Mortimer Q. Snodgrass is quantitatively very different from confirming that the culprit was not Mortimer Q. Snodgrass, and like someone once said, a qualitative difference is just a quantitative difference that is large enough.