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JQuinton comments on What Bayesianism taught me - Less Wrong

62 Post author: Tyrrell_McAllister 12 August 2013 06:59AM

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Comment author: JQuinton 13 August 2013 05:37:02PM 12 points [-]

"Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence" is such a ubiquitous cached thought in rationalist communities (that I've been involved with) that its antithesis was probably the most important thing I learned from Bayesianism.

Comment author: ksvanhorn 22 August 2013 06:56:02PM 4 points [-]

I find it interesting that Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, the author of the Sherlock Holmes stories, seems to have understood this concept. In his story "Silver Blaze" he has the following conversation between Holmes and a Scotland Yard detective:

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"

Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."

Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."

Holmes: "That was the curious incident."