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AndHisHorse comments on What Bayesianism taught me - Less Wrong
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Your argument might be helped if you provided some examples of the average/median citizen needing to be told such things. There might even be a name for what those examples are, which you would present to induce others to be less sure of the beliefs which these examples contradict.
I've heard "evidence" tossed around as something you might want to provide.
How about religion? There is a variety of them and they can't all be right (many claim to be the only true one), yet people tend to just believe whichever one they happen to have been raised to believe. They are believing in these massive cosmic arrangements and belief structures...by accident of where they happen to have been raised. And I always have to tell them this.
I expected a very high "obviousness" to my assertion that the median citizen needs to be told these things; that's why I didn't even bother giving evidence. Why is this necessary?
Nightly news being so incredibly vacuous is pretty strong evidence that the mean citizen is bad at weighing probabilistic evidence. (e.g. "What common household item might kill you? Find out at the end of this newshour.")
"Knife", "bleach", "alcohol", "(overdose of) medication", "rope", "plastic bag", "Hufflepuff bones...".