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TimS comments on What Bayesianism taught me - Less Wrong
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Your argument might be helped if you provided some examples of the average/median citizen needing to be told such things. There might even be a name for what those examples are, which you would present to induce others to be less sure of the beliefs which these examples contradict.
I've heard "evidence" tossed around as something you might want to provide.
Nightly news being so incredibly vacuous is pretty strong evidence that the mean citizen is bad at weighing probabilistic evidence. (e.g. "What common household item might kill you? Find out at the end of this newshour.")
"Knife", "bleach", "alcohol", "(overdose of) medication", "rope", "plastic bag", "Hufflepuff bones...".