pdf23ds comments on The Proper Use of Doubt - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 August 2007 08:29PM

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Comment author: pdf23ds 08 August 2007 05:56:18PM 0 points [-]

Conchis, I didn't get the impression that a doubt more often downgrades than it upgrades, since you can just as easily doubt a low estimation as a high one, and since you can express any probability of X greater than .5 as one of ~X under .5. Someone can just as easily doubt their atheism as they can their theism.

But the doubts could be asymmetrical. What about a path of investigation (POI) that had a 10% chance of increasing you estimation by .3 and a 90% chance of lowering it by .03? (Those numbers might not actually be balanced, but I think you get the idea.)