Swimmer963 comments on Biases of Intuitive and Logical Thinkers - Less Wrong
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Very true. Confirmation bias and not looking hard enough for a diagnosis is a big issue in medicine, too. I'm not sure if there's a difference between health care practitioners who were originally logic-dominant thinkers or originally intuition-dominant thinkers, or whether both struggle and have to learn the other skill anyway.
A difference is that when you're working, you have time to be as slow, thoughtful, and deliberate as you want when figuring out a problem. Obviously it's better to reason things through as well as noticing intuitions, but System 2 (roughly, explicit reasoning) is slow and effortful and puts a heavy load on working memory, and System 1 (roughly, intuitions) is fast and doesn't fill up working memory. My younger self wanted to reason though everything logically–and as a result, because nursing is a profession where you're always working under time constraints, I was always a step behind everyone else, always took longer to get started at the beginning of the day, always stayed an hour past the end of a shift to finish charting. I don't think this is because I'm a "slow" thinker–I finish written exams in half the time that it takes most of the other nursing students. Also, in my experience having a load on working memory increases confirmation bias–I don't know if this has been studied, although it wouldn't be a hard study to do. I'm more curious about things that don't make sense now.
Modern medicine makes use of checklists a lot. I think this is awesome. I don't need any urging to use them; I was making personal checklists on my work sheet way before I knew this was already a thing. And "if in doubt, ask someone else to come have a look" is pretty universal too. Also not something I need urging to do.
I don't literally mean that. It's just what it feels like.
Even when this is the case, I don't find that anger helps me get what I want. Then again, being agreeable, a lot of what I want is "not to be in conflict anymore." Also, I think some people kind of enjoy the powerful feeling that anger gives them. Whereas I find the feeling of anger aversive.
It seems we mostly agree about the usefulness and applicability of gut feelings, as well as their limitations. (Of course, if someone else is aware of any research about their accuracy, I am still interested in seeing it.)
One way I would summarize the ideal setup is: during "downtime", use logic-based reasoning to come up with a rigorous and easy-to-apply procedure; during "crunch time", use intuition to generate probable avenues of investigation and likely candidates for diagnosis and solution; supplement with the pre-developed procedure to guard against biases and ensure correct usage of intuition-derived data.
Does this sound like a fair summary?