Zvi comments on Biases of Intuitive and Logical Thinkers - Less Wrong
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The problem with the stress response is that it's likely based only on the potential for loss rather than any real intuitive calculation. Suppose blue was (+10 / -5) at 50% each, and red was (+300 / -250 ) with 50% each. Red is right but I would very much expect a stress reaction on red from ordinary people, more so for cards with a wider variety of possible outcomes!