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Manfred comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 - Less Wrong
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What was the reason Lucius Malfoy thought of?
Bellatrix black, I assume.
For those of you confused by this comment: I believe Manfred assumes Lucius suspected that Hermione was replaced by a polyjuiced Bellatrix Black. Lucius implies that he believes Harry to be a de-powered Voldemort in their discussion at the train station, and also believes Harry to be behind the rescue of Bellatrix from Azkaban. If you rescued your powerful minion, you would want to keep her close about you for your own protection and to accomplish tasks beyond your magical abilities. Hermione Granger is known to associate with Harry Potter, so she would be the ideal candidate for someone to replace with Bellatrix.
I don't understand. Lucius thought that Harrymort wanted to bring up Hermione as his new Bella?
Or that Hermione was possessed by Bellatrix in the same way that Harry Potter was presumably possessed by Voldemort.
That makes no sense. First, Bellatrix is not dead (or whatever state Voldemort is in). Second, she could have had no contact with Hermione before escaping Azkaban.
Lucius thinks in terms of plots within schemes within intrigues; he does not necessarily assume that the body in Azkaban belongs to the real Bellatrix Black, or that the escape was real.