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RolfAndreassen comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 - Less Wrong
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That makes no sense. First, Bellatrix is not dead (or whatever state Voldemort is in). Second, she could have had no contact with Hermione before escaping Azkaban.
Lucius thinks in terms of plots within schemes within intrigues; he does not necessarily assume that the body in Azkaban belongs to the real Bellatrix Black, or that the escape was real.