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Fermatastheorem comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 - Less Wrong
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You left out "The wards explicitly say that the Defense Professor killed Hermione."
I mean, it is quite literally spelled out. I'm completely baffled at how both readers and characters are not promoting Quirrell to the top of the suspects list by a mile.
This only narrows Harry's list to 'The Defense Professor and people who could rig the wards to say the Defense Professor killed her.' Dumbles is easily on that list.
Yes, but "The Defense Professor" and "anyone else who can rig the wards" shouldn't have the same probability in his mind. What with all the rest of Quirrell's strange behavior and the curse on the position, "The Defense Professor" should be allotted a massive probability, with a comparatively smaller piece left for "whoever else has the ability to do this." He should be suspect number one by far.
For that, I'd point to undermind's comment that this is only what Harry wants the Malfoys to know.
There might also be an element of Harry's art as a rationalist being forgotten when he needs it most.