timtyler comments on Where I've Changed My Mind on My Approach to Speculative Causes - Less Wrong

36 Post author: peter_hurford 16 August 2013 07:09AM

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Comment author: timtyler 21 August 2013 11:52:06PM *  -1 points [-]

Saying that "we thought X was dangerous, we looked at it closely and it turns out X isn't dangerous at all" has the same meaning as "we mis-estimated the danger from X and then corrected the estimate".

Risks and dangers here are percieved risks and dangers. In that context, such talk makes sense - obviously percieved risks depend on your current state of knowledge. Maybe god knows whether the bad thing will happen or not - but without a hotline to Him, percieved risks and dangers will remain the best we have.