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Baughn comments on How sure are you that brain emulations would be conscious? - Less Wrong
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For part of that 2%, you may consider the possibility that brains do not produce consciousness/qualia, and your actual consciousness is implemented on a different sort of hardware, outside the matrix.
(Does telling you this fairly specific story in any way budge the 2% number?)
I'd say it fits pretty well inside the 2% (I was kinda worried 2% was a bit large, but had to take into consideration that I'm not actually a neuroscientist, among other things, including the simulation hypothesis).