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Halfwitz comments on To what degree do you model people as agents? - Less Wrong
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If you regularly associate with people of similar intelligence, how rare can that be? Even if you are the smartest person you know (unlikely considering the people you know, some of whom exceed your competence in mathematics and philosophy), anyone with more XP in certain areas would behave unpredictably in said areas, even if they had a smaller initial endowment. My guess is your means-prediction lobe is badly calibrated because after the fact you say to yourself, “I would have predicted that.” This could be easily tested.
Intelligent people tend to only on rare occasions tackle problems where it stretches the limit of their cognitive abilities to (predict how to) solve them. Thus, most of my exposure to this comes by way of, e.g., watching mathematicians at decision theory workshops prove things in domains where I am unfamiliar - then they can exceed my prediction abilities even when they are not tackling a problem which appears to them spectacularly difficult.
Where the task they are doing has a skill requirement that you do not meet, you cannot predict how they will solve the problem.
Does that sound right? It's more obvious that the prediction is hard when the decision is "fake-punt, run the clock down, and take the safety instead of giving them the football with so much time left" rather than physical feats. Purely mental feats are a different kind of different.