= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Desrtopa comments on The Apocalypse Bet - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (51)
I think judging on the basis of those three possibilities is a premature narrowing of the hypothesis space.
One has to start somewhere. And the possibility-space isn't that large: the investments will be valuable or not, some sort of Singularity will happen or not, etc.
I would suggest that a breakdown in social order (without a singularity occurring) is another scenario that might be roughly as probable as the others you mentioned. In such case, it would seem the manner by which you invest in equities would matter. I.e.., the value of most abstract investments may vanish, and the value of equities held in trust by various institutions (or counterparties) may also vanish.
Which falls in the 'not valuable'/'not Singularity' cell of the 2x2 table.