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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Apocalypse Bet - Less Wrong
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Dear past Eliezer: Robin is just right here, your idea doesn't work, accept it and move on.
Do you remember what exactly made you change your mind?
I'm not sure. Probably had something to do with (a) reading econblogs in the meantime (b) getting in more practice on abandoning bad ideas and recognizing the 'reluctance'.